Population growth

Bill Wright wrote:

Apparently the ONC tells us that the population will increase by 10
million by 2035 as the direct and indirect results of immigration. The
report on the BBC website distorts the facts in several important ways.
If the matter makes to the broadcast BBC news please let me know.

It was on BBC radio before I went to work this morning, and it's a
headline item on the BBC 6pm news just now ...

"Adrian" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 30 Oct 2015 04:42:58 +1100, 78lp wrote:

Is there never to be a cap on the world's population?

Not until you manage to persuade people that they really don't enjoy
****ing.

****ing isn't the problem, it’s the ****ing that produces kids that is
the problem.

Mmm. Perhaps you hadn't heard that quite a few religious leaders are less
than keen on willy-wellies?

They get no say in the most populous countries.

The Chinese government have tried - with little success,

They have in fact been very successful indeed at limiting most to just
one kid.

Strange how there's an average national fertility rate of 1.66 children
per woman - versus the UK's 1.9.

Still FAR more single child families than in the UK.

And the Chinese population's dropped since 1979 has it? Oh, wait. It
hasn't. It's 40% higher than it was - in a country with net migration of
1.5m annually...

Then there's Wugong province. The most successful at implementing the
policy... and now facing a major demographic timebomb.

Oh, and btw - have you not heard today's news? The one child policy has
been officially "extended" to two...

And plenty have decided that one is all they want too.

And with a surplus of something like 20M single males,
they will mostly not have any kids at all.

Plenty of the women won't have any too.

On 29/10/2015 15:19, Bill Wright wrote:
Apparently the ONC tells us that the population will increase by 10
million by 2035 as the direct and indirect results of immigration. The
report on the BBC website distorts the facts in several important ways.
If the matter makes to the broadcast BBC news please let me know. I
suspect that if it does it will be minimised.

Just seen it on Sky News. Quite a good report.

Bill

Its been on the BBC too.
Its nothing new anyway and its a prediction that has a large error
margin too.

On 29/10/2015 16:45, Adrian wrote:

Not until you manage to persuade people that they really don't enjoy
****ing.

The Chinese government have tried - with little success, and big knock-on
effects.

Its been very successful, too successful, now they are facing and aging
population and a lack of workers.


The real answer has to be working for longer, better spreading of
available resources or a drop in the expected standard of living.

Of course. But people really don't want to do that.

Those of us that have paid into real pension funds rather than just
paying for the current retired folk don't have to. Not that it means we
can't work if we want to.


The main other option has been explored in fiction from Trollope's "Fixed
Period" through to "Logan's Run" and beyond.


Thats what the experiments with flu, TB and SARS is about in'it.

On 29/10/2015 18:03, Andy Burns wrote:
Bill Wright wrote:

Apparently the ONC tells us that the population will increase by 10
million by 2035 as the direct and indirect results of immigration. The
report on the BBC website distorts the facts in several important ways.
If the matter makes to the broadcast BBC news please let me know.

It was on BBC radio before I went to work this morning, and it's a
headline item on the BBC 6pm news just now ...


Yes, quite a long report of Radio 4. I'm pleased. However they
absolutely minimised any mention of immigration being the cause.

Bill

"Rod Speed" wrote in message
...

Is there never to be a cap on the world's population?

Its starting to look like it will fix itself eventually.
Birth rates are dropping world wide now except
in places where its now so low that that place is
right down in the noise.

How come the world's population is increasing by 50% every 40 years or so?

How come it will increase from the present 7 billion to 10 billion by 2050?

The truth is, it's out of control and exponentially rising.

That has happened throughout history in all animal populations in times of plenty.
Then they outstrip their food supply, there is widespread famine, and the population
rather unpleasantly and extremely rapidly declines.

Sorry, but humans will be no different. There is no appreciation of the problem,
no-one who can comprehend its magnitude, and no-one in a position, or would be
allowed, to do anything about it.

"Bill Wright" wrote in message
...
On 29/10/2015 18:03, Andy Burns wrote:
Bill Wright wrote:

Apparently the ONC tells us that the population will increase by 10
million by 2035 as the direct and indirect results of immigration. The
report on the BBC website distorts the facts in several important ways.
If the matter makes to the broadcast BBC news please let me know.

It was on BBC radio before I went to work this morning, and it's a
headline item on the BBC 6pm news just now ...


Yes, quite a long report of Radio 4. I'm pleased. However they absolutely
minimised any mention of immigration being the cause.

Covered that the same as Sky did.

Norman Wells wrote
Rod Speed wrote

Is there never to be a cap on the world's population?

Its starting to look like it will fix itself eventually.
Birth rates are dropping world wide now except
in places where its now so low that that place is
right down in the noise.

How come the world's population is increasing by 50% every 40 years or so?

Basically because its coming off a rather higher birth rate in the past.

How come it will increase from the present 7 billion to 10 billion by
2050?

Basically because its coming off a rather higher birth rate in the past.

The truth is, it's out of control

Not anymore. Even the most populous country imposed quite
a bit of control and did that so effectively that they have had
to relax that control because of the downsides of that control.

and exponentially rising.

In fact not one modern first world country is even self
replacing now on population if you take out immigration
and that is true of quite a bit of the second world too.

Birth rates are dropping world wide now except
in places where its now so low that that place is
right down in the noise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...fertility_rate

That has happened throughout history in all animal populations in times of
plenty. Then they outstrip their food supply, there is widespread famine,
and the population rather unpleasantly and extremely rapidly declines.

Human populations don’t work like that.

Sorry, but humans will be no different.

They already are. Not one modern first world country is even
self replacing now on population if you take out immigration.
Those are by definition the countrys with much more plenty
than anywhere else and we don’t in fact see them do anything
like outstrip their food supply, or see anything even remotely
like widespread famine in the modern first world, and nothing
even remotely like the population rather unpleasantly and
extremely rapidly declines in the modern first world.

Human populations are in fact VERY different to animal populations.

There is no appreciation of the problem,

There is no appreciation by you and your ilk how things are changing.

no-one who can comprehend its magnitude, and no-one in a position, or
would be allowed, to do anything about it.

How odd that China did in fact realise that they had a problem,
and did something very real about it, so effectively that they
have had to relax that doing something about it because of the
downsides they have got with that rather gung ho approach.

And even now they are STILL not self replacing even if every
couple does have two kids. And that clearly isn't going to happen.

On 29/10/2015 18:03, Adrian wrote:

And the Chinese population's dropped since 1979 has it? Oh, wait. It
hasn't. It's 40% higher than it was - in a country with net migration of
1.5m annually...

Many countries have a very high young population. For example
Mozambique, where 45% of the population is under 15. There's population
growth built in in these countries even if they implemented radical
birth control policies.

So, the Chinese one child policy has been very effective, despite their
population growing. Their proportion under 15 is now just 16% (cf UK:
18%), which is why they have relaxed the policy.

http://kff.org/global-indicator/popu...-under-age-15/

On 29/10/2015 19:09, [email protected] wrote:

Those of us that have paid into real pension funds rather than just
paying for the current retired folk don't have to. Not that it means we
can't work if we want to.

The payments will, nevertheless, always be a transfer from the working
population to the non-working population. If things get too dire for the
workers, they will rebel/go on strike/whatever, so they get more of the
cake. So, don't be too complacent.