Comcast announces partnership with Tivo !

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...ivo_comcast_18

On Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:16:56 GMT, "Martha Stewart's cellmate"
wrote:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...ivo_comcast_18


Wow!

I did not know that.

Thanks!!!


Sean

Sean none writes:

On Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:16:56 GMT, "Martha Stewart's cellmate"
wrote:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...ivo_comcast_18


Wow!

I did not know that.

Thanks!!!


Sean

This may have been the most clever post from Sean ever.

Here is what I don't understand. Tivo's stock shot up 75% today,
giving them a market cap of $540 million.

But the actual NUMBERS from the Comcast deal are still secret. There
is zero public information about how much revenue this deal will
actually represent for Tivo. Maybe it's $1 per subscriber per month;
maybe it's 20 cents per year. We don't know. So how do you justify a
quarter billion dollar jump in valuation?

We know from earlier reports that a Comcast deal fell through last
summer, partly because Comcast did not offer Tivo enough money. Since
it would have been insane THEN to turn down any Comcast offer short of
total robbery, I really must wonder what the terms of this new deal
are.

Don't get me wrong. As someone who bought TIVO at $17 (bubble mania;
go figure) and has held it ever since, I am glad to see a little
action here. I will probably continue to hold the stock because I
have an irrational liking for the company... But my rational side has
this nagging suspicion that I am making the wrong call.

- Pat

But the actual NUMBERS from the Comcast deal are still secret. There
is zero public information about how much revenue this deal will
actually represent for Tivo. Maybe it's $1 per subscriber per month;
maybe it's 20 cents per year. We don't know. So how do you justify a
quarter billion dollar jump in valuation?

You probably can't. Markets don't work rationally in the short term
(and perhaps not even in the long term), there's a lot of emotion involved.

I'd say there's two factors contributing here. One, Tivo is a *loved*
company with loyal followers not based on financials. Fans often see
owning stock as one method of supporting a company they like (which
isn't necessarily wrong). Any sign of good news, particularly after a
long period of bad or no news will likely cause many of those fans to
purchase stock, regardless of valuation.

Two, after such a long period of bad or no news, Tivo's stock was
probably depressed below what it really should have been. They have a
quality product (which has been proven difficult to duplicate reliably),
a very loyal customer base, and very active and forward thinking
development. Despite all that, it was difficult to justify the stock as
a buy because there was nothing to show for a relatively long time
except bad news (at least financially, TTG was something good to talk
about at least). Now that there's something else to focus on, nobody
has to make excuses.

Also, remember that the stock market typically buys on the rumor and
sells on the news. Since there wasn't even a *rumor* about this
(AFAIK), the market reacted swiftly. Later on, even if the financials
look as good as expected, the price will probably still drop some
because the emotion will be gone.

Randy S.

In article [email protected],
Lenroc wrote:

On Tue, 15 Mar 2005 17:45:26 -0500, Patrick J. LoPresti wrote:

But the actual NUMBERS from the Comcast deal are still secret. There
is zero public information about how much revenue this deal will
actually represent for Tivo. Maybe it's $1 per subscriber per month;
maybe it's 20 cents per year. We don't know. So how do you justify a
quarter billion dollar jump in valuation?

Because Stock investors are not necessarily economists?

How do you justify _anything_ the stock market does?

Wall Street often over reacts to things.

"Sean" none wrote in message
...
On Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:16:56 GMT, "Martha Stewart's cellmate"
wrote:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...ivo_comcast_18


Wow!

I did not know that.

Thanks!!!


Sean

So does this change your prediction of the demise of Tivo? As I recall you
indicated in previous post "I'm on record as saying that Tivo will no longer
exist in it's current form 6 months from the time Directv starts marketing
their own DVR's." Given that Comcast has about 21.5M Basic Cable subscribers
and about 8.6M Digital Cable subscribers compared to DTV's 11M I'd say that
Tivo is going to get a pretty large market share if this deal actually goes
through.

Just curious
TC

So does this change your prediction of the demise of Tivo? As I recall you
indicated in previous post "I'm on record as saying that Tivo will no longer
exist in it's current form 6 months from the time Directv starts marketing
their own DVR's." Given that Comcast has about 21.5M Basic Cable subscribers
and about 8.6M Digital Cable subscribers compared to DTV's 11M I'd say that
Tivo is going to get a pretty large market share if this deal actually goes
through.

He'll just ignore this post as usual. He doesn't anwer posts where he
can't pretend he was right in the first place.

Randy S.

In article .net,
"Tony Clark" wrote:


"Sean" none wrote in message
...
On Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:16:56 GMT, "Martha Stewart's cellmate"
wrote:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...te/tivo_comcas
t_18


Wow!

I did not know that.

Thanks!!!


Sean

So does this change your prediction of the demise of Tivo? As I recall you
indicated in previous post "I'm on record as saying that Tivo will no longer
exist in it's current form 6 months from the time Directv starts marketing
their own DVR's." Given that Comcast has about 21.5M Basic Cable subscribers
and about 8.6M Digital Cable subscribers compared to DTV's 11M I'd say that
Tivo is going to get a pretty large market share if this deal actually goes
through.

Just curious
TC

DirecTv is above 13 million by now.

"Jack Zwick" wrote in message
...
In article .net,
SNIP


DirecTv is above 13 million by now.

In a check of the DTV annual report, 3-1-05, they claim 13.9M US and 1.6M
Latin America. Still only about half that of Comcast. I guess reports of
Tivo's demise were premature.

TC

On Wed, 16 Mar 2005 07:08:57 -0500, "Randy S."
wrote:


So does this change your prediction of the demise of Tivo? As I recall you
indicated in previous post "I'm on record as saying that Tivo will no longer
exist in it's current form 6 months from the time Directv starts marketing
their own DVR's." Given that Comcast has about 21.5M Basic Cable subscribers
and about 8.6M Digital Cable subscribers compared to DTV's 11M I'd say that
Tivo is going to get a pretty large market share if this deal actually goes
through.

He'll just ignore this post as usual. He doesn't anwer posts where he
can't pretend he was right in the first place.

Randy S.


Oh, I ignored it all right. Except for my post yesterday
Titled Sean Was proven right.

Geeze what dolts you are.

As I said in the initial post months ago about Mike Ramsay ...

Maybe he can now devote all his time to begging cable companies
to return his phone calls.

That's the only hope for this company, otherwise it's ...

TIVO - Dead Company Walking

So, what happens. Ramsay does what I said he should.

He begged the cable co's to come back to the table.

It remains to be seen if all this is is a replacement of 1 bad deal
(directv) with another.

Sean