Japan HDTV
 

With only 12 million homes capable of HDTV so far, 28 million by end of
2005, Japan has sold 1.6 million digital TV sets in their first year of
broadcasting with multicasting and cell phone reception both coming next
year.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20041129wo62.htm

Bob Miller

Bob Miller wrote:
With only 12 million homes capable of HDTV so far, 28 million by end of
2005, Japan has sold 1.6 million digital TV sets in their first year of
broadcasting with multicasting and cell phone reception both coming next
year.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20041129wo62.htm


Once again, bob posts a source that refutes his claim:

"About 1.6 million television sets and tuners that are compatible with
digital technology have been shipped out".

Which, as we all know, includes units shipped to stores and reviewers.
It says nothing about the number that consumers have purchased. In
addition, the number of US homes that are "capable of HDTV so far"
(which in the above context means could receive an HD signal if they
possessed the appropriate equipment) is close to 10 times that of Japan.

It also says that:

"Although prices of digital TV sets have fallen, even 22-inch sets still
cost more than 200,000 yen. Lowering prices is the key to increasing the
number of households capable of receiving digital TV broadcasting".

That's about $2000 for a 22 inch set. That's quite a lot more expensive
than in the US. I would guess those prices have to drop substantially
before the Japanese consumer really gets on the HD bandwagon.

Elsewhere it says:

"This autumn, NHK Educational channel introduced its multiple
programming function, through which viewers can watch two or three
programs simultaneously on a single channel, although the picture
quality will be the same as that of the analog format".

Why only two or three subchannels? Is the datacasting they are doing
really consuming that much bandwidth? That sounds like a losing
proposition for a commercial station.

Matthew

Matthew L. Martin wrote:
Bob Miller wrote:

With only 12 million homes capable of HDTV so far, 28 million by end
of 2005, Japan has sold 1.6 million digital TV sets in their first
year of broadcasting with multicasting and cell phone reception both
coming next year.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20041129wo62.htm


Once again, bob posts a source that refutes his claim:

"About 1.6 million television sets and tuners that are compatible with
digital technology have been shipped out".

Which, as we all know, includes units shipped to stores and reviewers.
It says nothing about the number that consumers have purchased.

Sales thru to households must be high because sales to dealers rose 108%
above the previous month in July, 147% over July in August before
falling to 79% of August in September (post Olympics) and then jumping
to something close to 200% over September in October. Sales seem to be
following demand closely in Japan. I expect a blowout for Christmas this
year since more of the country will come on line with HDTV thru December.

It is in the US where very low volume production of OTA receivers and
even slower sales have caused cob webs to cover minuscule inventories of
receivers and even far fewer integrated OTA sets to cause Matthew to
think this way. Japan has very little inventory of integrated HDTV sets
and the velocity of sales is extreme compared to the US.

In addition, the number of US homes that are "capable of HDTV so far"
(which in the above context means could receive an HD signal if they
possessed the appropriate equipment) is close to 10 times that of Japan.

Again in Japan they have 48 million households and ONLY 12 million or
25% are capable of receiving HDTV and of that 25%, 13.3% can already
receive HDTV in there homes after ONLY ONE YEAR!!!

Matthew seems to think it is impressive that in the US where 90% + of
our 109 million households can receive HDTV IF THEY HAD THE EQUIPMENT,
around ONE lousy % HAVE THE EQUIPMENT AFTER 7 YEARS of trying!!!


It also says that:

"Although prices of digital TV sets have fallen, even 22-inch sets still
cost more than 200,000 yen. Lowering prices is the key to increasing the
number of households capable of receiving digital TV broadcasting".

That's about $2000 for a 22 inch set. That's quite a lot more expensive
than in the US. I would guess those prices have to drop substantially
before the Japanese consumer really gets on the HD bandwagon.

Matthew fails to comprehend that having HDTV sets that are more
expensive in Japan than in the US makes the fact that they are selling
HDTV INTEGRATED sets like 100 times faster than we are even MORE
IMPRESSIVE!!!

That is in Japan where they only have three cities with HDTV broadcast
and where HDTV sets cost three times what they do in the US and where
they have been selling OTA HDTV integrated sets for all of ONE YEAR they
have sold 13% of the households capable of receiving said HDTV signals.

Similar figures occurred in the UK and Berlin where they had 12% and 13%
penetration after less than a year.

The US has around ONE% after 7 YEARS!!!

Elsewhere it says:

"This autumn, NHK Educational channel introduced its multiple
programming function, through which viewers can watch two or three
programs simultaneously on a single channel, although the picture
quality will be the same as that of the analog format".

Why only two or three subchannels? Is the datacasting they are doing
really consuming that much bandwidth? That sounds like a losing
proposition for a commercial station.

Commercial stations in the US and Japan only produced one program per
physical channel for the last 50 years. How does doing "only two or
three subchannels" or three to four times what they did analog become a
losing proposition? Sounds like a way to print money with OTA
broadcasting to me.

Matthew

Bob Miller wrote:

Matthew L. Martin wrote:

Bob Miller wrote:

With only 12 million homes capable of HDTV so far, 28 million by end
of 2005, Japan has sold 1.6 million digital TV sets in their first
year of broadcasting with multicasting and cell phone reception both
coming next year.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20041129wo62.htm


Once again, bob posts a source that refutes his claim:

"About 1.6 million television sets and tuners that are compatible with
digital technology have been shipped out".

Which, as we all know, includes units shipped to stores and reviewers.
It says nothing about the number that consumers have purchased.


Sales thru to households must be high because sales to dealers rose 108%
above the previous month in July, 147% over July in August before
falling to 79% of August in September (post Olympics) and then jumping
to something close to 200% over September in October. Sales seem to be
following demand closely in Japan. I expect a blowout for Christmas this
year since more of the country will come on line with HDTV thru December.

It is in the US where very low volume production of OTA receivers and
even slower sales have caused cob webs to cover minuscule inventories of
receivers and even far fewer integrated OTA sets to cause Matthew to
think this way. Japan has very little inventory of integrated HDTV sets
and the velocity of sales is extreme compared to the US.

Care to tell us how many of the HD capable sets in Japan do not have tuners?

In addition, the number of US homes that are "capable of HDTV so far"

(which in the above context means could receive an HD signal if they
possessed the appropriate equipment) is close to 10 times that of Japan.


Again in Japan they have 48 million households and ONLY 12 million or
25% are capable of receiving HDTV and of that 25%, 13.3% can already
receive HDTV in there homes after ONLY ONE YEAR!!!

Care to tell us what that has to do with anything?

Matthew seems to think it is impressive that in the US where 90% + of
our 109 million households can receive HDTV IF THEY HAD THE EQUIPMENT,
around ONE lousy % HAVE THE EQUIPMENT AFTER 7 YEARS of trying!!!

I've stated my opinion on that front many times. The major reason that
the FCC f*cked up when the didn't require a cable ready, CAM equipped
ATSC receiver in every HD device from day one.

It also says that:

"Although prices of digital TV sets have fallen, even 22-inch sets
still cost more than 200,000 yen. Lowering prices is the key to
increasing the number of households capable of receiving digital TV
broadcasting".

That's about $2000 for a 22 inch set. That's quite a lot more
expensive than in the US. I would guess those prices have to drop
substantially before the Japanese consumer really gets on the HD
bandwagon.


Matthew fails to comprehend that having HDTV sets that are more
expensive in Japan than in the US makes the fact that they are selling
HDTV INTEGRATED sets like 100 times faster than we are even MORE
IMPRESSIVE!!!

Your statistics are showing. You really should get some help in that
department. What is the breakdown of receivers vs integrated set? The
article aggregates them.

That is in Japan where they only have three cities with HDTV broadcast
and where HDTV sets cost three times what they do in the US and where
they have been selling OTA HDTV integrated sets for all of ONE YEAR they
have sold 13% of the households capable of receiving said HDTV signals.

Similar figures occurred in the UK and Berlin where they had 12% and 13%
penetration after less than a year.

The US has around ONE% after 7 YEARS!!!

The US has had a surplus of channels for a couple of decades. The
transitions you are talking about are from few choices to many choices.
That is what is driving those expansions. DTV isn't HDTV either. In
Europe no one had to buy a new display to get DTV. In the US you do.

Elsewhere it says:

"This autumn, NHK Educational channel introduced its multiple
programming function, through which viewers can watch two or three
programs simultaneously on a single channel, although the picture
quality will be the same as that of the analog format".

Why only two or three subchannels? Is the datacasting they are doing
really consuming that much bandwidth? That sounds like a losing
proposition for a commercial station.


Commercial stations in the US and Japan only produced one program per
physical channel for the last 50 years. How does doing "only two or
three subchannels" or three to four times what they did analog become a
losing proposition?

Once again, you change the subject and refuse to answer the question.
Why is that?

Sounds like a way to print money with OTA
broadcasting to me.


It has yet to be shown that more channels mean more profits. If it did
than cable companies should be able to survive on their advertising
revenue and only charge for their capital investment. Last time I
checked their business model is far from that.

Matthew

On Mon, 29 Nov 2004, Bob Miller wrote:
"This autumn, NHK Educational channel
Commercial stations in the US and Japan only produced one program per
physical channel for the last 50 years. How does doing "only two or three
subchannels" or three to four times what they did analog become a losing
proposition? Sounds like a way to print money with OTA broadcasting to me.

NHK is not a commercial station. NHK is supported by mandatory fees on TV
set owners in Japan, like the way BBC is supported in Britain.

-- Mark --

http://staff.washington.edu/mrc
Science does not emerge from voting, party politics, or public debate.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.

Bob Miller wrote in message link.net...
With only 12 million homes capable of HDTV so far, 28 million by end of
2005, Japan has sold 1.6 million digital TV sets in their first year of
broadcasting with multicasting and cell phone reception both coming next
year.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20041129wo62.htm

Bob Miller

How can anybody have such an overpowering desire to keep a stink stirred up?



Keith

Bob Miller wrote in message link.net...
With only 12 million homes capable of HDTV so far, 28 million by end of
2005, Japan has sold 1.6 million digital TV sets in their first year of
broadcasting with multicasting and cell phone reception both coming next
year.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20041129wo62.htm

Bob Miller

What's the point of this post? Given your history of post, I'll take
this as another "look how far behind the USA is" post. If you look at
Japan (behind this specific technology) you'll find they are country
that loves to embrace technology. We're talking about the land where
people take the Tamogatchi (digital key chain pets) seriously, where
people will shell out $1000+ for a robot dog and kids will skip school
and stand in line for days (with their parents) buy a new video game
(happend first in the mid 80's with Dragon Quest III for the Famicom
game console and has happened numerious times sense).

The thing you haven't done is factor in Japanese culture. That plays a
big part as to why an adult citizen of Japan may choice to shell out
200,000 yen instead of save that money or spend it on something else.

Why don't we talk about over-the-air broad cast in Japan? How many
stations do they have now? How much prime time programming is
available in HD in Japan? What about subscription television services,
is HD-DVR an option in Japan?

The USA is the clear leader in available HD content, why we keep
coming back to how many Integrated HDTVs (HDTVs with built in digital
tuners) have been sold is beyond me. The survey data is flawed because
HD Ready sets should be included as well, US consumers can have HDTV
with an HD Ready set an a HD cable box or HD satellite box, trends
indicate the US consumers have selected this route. Walk into any
retailer and look at the number of HD Ready sets available on a floor
vs the number of HD integrated sets. I believe we're in the middle of
a transition that will bring us to where integrated sets are more
common place, but we aren't there yet and the 2006 DTV switch manidate
is a joke and we all know that won't happen.

On Mon, 29 Nov 2004, Bob Miller wrote:
I expect a blowout for Christmas this year since more of
the country will come on line with HDTV thru December.

What, pray tell, does Christmas have to HDTV sales in Japan?

For your information, Christmas is not a holiday in Japan. As a shopping
day, it is about on the same scale as Valentine's Day -- an excuse to give
small gifts to family members (and especially sweethearts) and to have a
drinking party that night.

Bob Miller's ignorance about Japan is truly staggering.

By the way, I've been investigating the Japanese video cellphones he's
been yammering about. There are, indeed, a few cellphones that receive
15fps video from the provider (not broadcast DTV).

Just released are a few very new cellphones (three or so models) that
receive broadcast television...*ANALOG* broadcast television. Golly gee,
a cellphone combined with a 1988-vintage Casio TV-410. There are *no*
cellphones that receive digital broadcast television.

Nor are there likely to be any digital broadcast television cellphones any
time soon. Leaving aside the technical issues, the 15fps video services
are premium services that are expected to generate considerable revenue at
anywhere from .2 to 2 yen (depending upon phone and technology) per 128
byte packet.

-- Mark --

http://staff.washington.edu/mrc
Science does not emerge from voting, party politics, or public debate.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.

On Mon, 29 Nov 2004, Matthew L. Martin wrote:
The US has had a surplus of channels for a couple of decades. The transitions
you are talking about are from few choices to many choices. That is what is
driving those expansions.

True. In Tokyo, you have a choice of only about a dozen broadcast
analog channels. Elsewhere in Japan, the choice is much more limited.

-- Mark --

http://staff.washington.edu/mrc
Science does not emerge from voting, party politics, or public debate.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.

JDeats wrote:
Bob Miller wrote in message link.net...

With only 12 million homes capable of HDTV so far, 28 million by end of
2005, Japan has sold 1.6 million digital TV sets in their first year of
broadcasting with multicasting and cell phone reception both coming next
year.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20041129wo62.htm

Bob Miller


What's the point of this post? Given your history of post, I'll take
this as another "look how far behind the USA is" post. If you look at
Japan (behind this specific technology) you'll find they are country
that loves to embrace technology. We're talking about the land where
people take the Tamogatchi (digital key chain pets) seriously, where
people will shell out $1000+ for a robot dog and kids will skip school
and stand in line for days (with their parents) buy a new video game
(happend first in the mid 80's with Dragon Quest III for the Famicom
game console and has happened numerious times sense).

The thing you haven't done is factor in Japanese culture. That plays a
big part as to why an adult citizen of Japan may choice to shell out
200,000 yen instead of save that money or spend it on something else.

Why don't we talk about over-the-air broad cast in Japan? How many
stations do they have now? How much prime time programming is
available in HD in Japan? What about subscription television services,
is HD-DVR an option in Japan?

The USA is the clear leader in available HD content, why we keep
coming back to how many Integrated HDTVs (HDTVs with built in digital
tuners) have been sold is beyond me. The survey data is flawed because
HD Ready sets should be included as well, US consumers can have HDTV
with an HD Ready set an a HD cable box or HD satellite box, trends
indicate the US consumers have selected this route. Walk into any
retailer and look at the number of HD Ready sets available on a floor
vs the number of HD integrated sets. I believe we're in the middle of
a transition that will bring us to where integrated sets are more
common place, but we aren't there yet and the 2006 DTV switch manidate
is a joke and we all know that won't happen.

My argument is that with the right modulation, COFDM, cable and
satellite are irrelevant. The mandate is irrelevant.

I don't know what the amount of HD content is in Japan or how many
stations they have or what their culture is. They are buying more HD
sets with OTA capability by far than the US is no matter what way you
measure it.

I would suggest that the culture of the US is such that with the right
modulation our aggressive entrepreneurial culture would have made the
digital transition happen. It would be all but over by now. There would
be 80+ million receivers in homes today. 2006 would be the real deal and
by now 500 broadcast stations would have voluntarily turned off their
analog transmitters with another 700 doing so in 2005.

Most TV sets sold today would come with COFDM receivers integrated at a
cost of as little as $25. Stand alone DTV COFDM receivers in the UK are
selling at $56.75 and that is not even on sale.

As of the end of August these were the figures. Since then they have
gone to 1.6 million end of October.
http://www.dibeg.org/news/news-3/news-e3.htm#dn039e

Of 1.346 million DTV receivers sold in the first NINE months, December
1st 2003 till August 31st 2004, of HDTV broadcasting in Japan 88,000
were stand alone receivers while 1.258 million were integrated.

Those crazy culturally mad Japanese actually buying HDTV sets with
receivers in them. They gotta be crazy, we need a MANDATE and we still
won't buy them.

Come up with all the phony excuses you want but the reality is very very
very simple. We have a lousy modulation that has not produced a decent
receiver as of yet. The American consumer is savvy. They listen to the
market in many ways. They have rejected 8-VSB.

The proof will be the advent of the 5th gen receiver. Sales will boom.
Receivers will be integrated. People will buy integrated sets if they
have 5th gen receivers in them.

Coulda happened and even better in 2001. Will happen beginning in 2005
at a higher cost than what it would have been in 2001.

Bob Miller