Population growth
 

On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 19:09:22 +0000, [email protected] wrote:

The real answer has to be working for longer, better spreading of
available resources or a drop in the expected standard of living.

Of course. But people really don't want to do that.

Those of us that have paid into real pension funds rather than just
paying for the current retired folk don't have to.

OK, here's a thought for you...

You've paid into a "real pension fund", by which I presume you mean some
kind of defined-benefit scheme, maybe even final-salary. Congratulations.
Now, what do you think the money you've paid into that "real pension
fund" does...? Does it get put into a big piggybank with your name on it,
and somehow miraculously grow?

Or does it get invested...?

What happens if those investments don't go according to plan, and a
shortfall accrues - and grows? Even if they work out, how do those
investments pay back?

There is no such thing as an investment for the future - of ANY kind -
which doesn't rely on the future economy, and no such thing as a pension
of any kind where payments in don't "pay for the current retired folk".
It's all a matter of juggling investments.

The _only_ difference is whether you've been told way in advance what
pension you expect to get - and that's where things can go very wrong.

Population growth
 

On 29/10/2015 22:14, Tim Streater wrote:
In article , Adrian
wrote:

On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 19:09:22 +0000, [email protected] wrote:

The real answer has to be working for longer, better spreading of
available resources or a drop in the expected standard of living.

Of course. But people really don't want to do that.

Those of us that have paid into real pension funds rather than just
paying for the current retired folk don't have to.

OK, here's a thought for you...

You've paid into a "real pension fund", by which I presume you mean
some kind of defined-benefit scheme, maybe even final-salary.
Congratulations.

That is not a real pension scheme. That's a scam. All such should be
banned.

Now, what do you think the money you've paid into that "real pension
fund" does...? Does it get put into a big piggybank with your name on
it, and somehow miraculously grow?

Or does it get invested...?

What happens if those investments don't go according to plan, and a
shortfall accrues - and grows? Even if they work out, how do those
investments pay back?

There is no such thing as an investment for the future - of ANY kind -
which doesn't rely on the future economy, and no such thing as a
pension of any kind where payments in don't "pay for the current
retired folk". It's all a matter of juggling investments.

The _only_ difference is whether you've been told way in advance what
pension you expect to get - and that's where things can go very wrong.

Companies should not be providing schemes for their own workers; it's
hardly their core business after all. The only sustainable type of
pension scheme is a personal one. You pay into a pot, and that pot is
invested for you. When you come to retire, the pot has a value that
relates to the economic situation at the time. If that is dire, then
your pension isn't worth much. But it'll be up to you what you do and
how/when you cash it in.

I don't know whether the state pension is properly funded in this way
or not, but I suspect it's just another Ponzi scheme, like the defined
benefit/final salary ones. Certainly this triple lock business is a bad
idea.


What makes you think a final salary pension isn't funded in the same way
as a personal pension?

Population growth
 

"Rod Speed" wrote in message
...
Norman Wells wrote
Rod Speed wrote

Is there never to be a cap on the world's population?

Its starting to look like it will fix itself eventually.
Birth rates are dropping world wide now except
in places where its now so low that that place is
right down in the noise.

How come the world's population is increasing by 50% every 40 years or so?

Basically because its coming off a rather higher birth rate in the past.

And in future it will come from a rather high birth rate in the future.

How come it will increase from the present 7 billion to 10 billion by 2050?

Basically because its coming off a rather higher birth rate in the past.

No, that's nonsense. It can only come from a rather high birth rate from now until
2050.

The truth is, it's out of control

Not anymore. Even the most populous country imposed quite
a bit of control and did that so effectively that they have had
to relax that control because of the downsides of that control.

Even in the times of that restriction, world population was increasing by 50% every
40 uears or so. Relaxation of that restriction in the most populous nation on earth
can only make the global situation worse.

and exponentially rising.

In fact not one modern first world country is even self
replacing now on population if you take out immigration
and that is true of quite a bit of the second world too.

World population, and hence the number of mouths to feed, doesn't depend on the
first world, which is pretty insignificant. The massive increase in popluation is
coming from the third world. And it will continue.

Birth rates are dropping world wide now except
in places where its now so low that that place is
right down in the noise.

World population is still increasing by 50% every 40 years or so. That can't
continue for ever, and I think you're deluding yourself if you think it won't.

That has happened throughout history in all animal populations in times ofplenty.
Then they outstrip their food supply, there is widespread famine, and thepopulation
rather unpleasantly and extremely rapidly declines.

Human populations don’t work like that.What evidence, if any, do you have for
that? You see, all the actual evidence ofpopulation increase worldwide indicates
otherwise.

Sorry, but humans will be no different.

They already are. Not one modern first world country is even
self replacing now on population if you take out immigration.

Those are by definition the countrys with much more plenty
than anywhere else and we don’t in fact see them do anything
like outstrip their food supply, or see anything even remotely
like widespread famine in the modern first world, and nothing
even remotely like the population rather unpleasantly and
extremely rapidly declines in the modern first world.

Since we're considering world population, what may be happening in the first world
is vastly outweighed by what's happening in the third world. World population
*overall* is expanding exponentially, and there is no evidence whatsoever that it
won't continue to do so in future. If it does, we will run out of food. It's
absolutely inevitable.

Human populations are in fact VERY different to animal populations.

No they aren't. They're actually very much the same. And it's a problem that has
no current appreciation nor any feasible solution.

There is no appreciation of the problem,

There is no appreciation by you and your ilk how things are changing.

Stop hiding your head in the sand and tell us why the population is still expected
to increase to 10 billion from the present 7 billion by 2050. That can only be
because of an enormously excessive birth rate overall.

no-one who can comprehend its magnitude, and no-one in a position, or would be
allowed, to do anything about it.

How odd that China did in fact realise that they had a problem,
and did something very real about it, so effectively that they
have had to relax that doing something about it because of the
downsides they have got with that rather gung ho approach.

And even now they are STILL not self replacing even if every
couple does have two kids. And that clearly isn't going to happen

Are you advocating worldwide legal penalties for having 'excess' children then?

If so, how would you propose to establish and enforce the rules worldwide?

If not, how do we break out of the exponential growth that is happening and will
continue to happen?

Population growth
 

"GB" wrote in message
...
On 29/10/2015 18:03, Adrian wrote:

And the Chinese population's dropped since 1979 has it? Oh, wait. It
hasn't. It's 40% higher than it was - in a country with net migration of
1.5m annually...

Many countries have a very high young population. For example Mozambique,
where 45% of the population is under 15. There's population growth built
in in these countries even if they implemented radical birth control
policies.

So, the Chinese one child policy has been very effective, despite their
population growing. Their proportion under 15 is now just 16% (cf UK:
18%), which is why they have relaxed the policy.

They have relaxed it because of the downsides with the one child
policy, particularly support for aging parents and grandparents etc.

http://kff.org/global-indicator/popu...-under-age-15/

Population growth
 

GB wrote
[email protected] wrote

Those of us that have paid into real pension funds rather than just
paying for the current retired folk don't have to. Not that it means we
can't work if we want to.

The payments will, nevertheless, always be a transfer from the working
population to the non-working population. If things get too dire for the
workers, they will rebel/go on strike/whatever,

Most often they just choose to no work as much because
they end up with less in their pocket after tax etc.

so they get more of the cake.

That normally doesn’t happen. The total tax
most pay just keeps increasing as time goes on.

So, don't be too complacent.

It'll keep working fine so long as the country
continues to accept quite a lot of immigrants.

Even in places like Japan that doesn’t, you
don’t actually see the non working population
ending up worse than they did in the past.

Population growth
 

On 29/10/2015 19:48, Norman Wells wrote:
"Rod Speed" wrote in message
...

Is there never to be a cap on the world's population?

Its starting to look like it will fix itself eventually.
Birth rates are dropping world wide now except
in places where its now so low that that place is
right down in the noise.

How come the world's population is increasing by 50% every 40 years or so?

How come it will increase from the present 7 billion to 10 billion by 2050?

The truth is, it's out of control and exponentially rising.

Fortunately you are likely mistaken.

See:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRkLg


--
Cheers,

John.

/================================================== ===============\
| Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------|
| John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk |
\================================================= ================/

Population growth
 

On 29/10/2015 9:06 PM, GB wrote:
On 29/10/2015 18:03, Adrian wrote:

And the Chinese population's dropped since 1979 has it? Oh, wait. It
hasn't. It's 40% higher than it was - in a country with net migration of
1.5m annually...

Many countries have a very high young population. For example
Mozambique, where 45% of the population is under 15. There's population
growth built in in these countries even if they implemented radical
birth control policies.

So, the Chinese one child policy has been very effective, despite their
population growing. Their proportion under 15 is now just 16% (cf UK:
18%), which is why they have relaxed the policy.

http://kff.org/global-indicator/popu...-under-age-15/


I remember reading a report or, maybe I saw it on TV, that showed
changing conditions in the vitality and virility of sperm in men was
dependant upon their living standards.

Observations showed that men of communities of high stress and high
mortality produced more active sperm, while, men in areas of easy living
and contentment less so.

Ignoring all other factors of population influence, this would suggest
that population control is programmed within us.

It seems that we are not alive unless we have a little stress?


10M extra people in Britain over the current 7xM? That means I may
notice an extra 0.14 people walking about? Lord help us!



....Ray.

--
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Phase Conjugate Waves
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Startpage - The PRIVATE Search Engine!

Population growth
 

On 29/10/2015 7:09 PM, [email protected] wrote:
On 29/10/2015 16:45, Adrian wrote:

Not until you manage to persuade people that they really don't enjoy
****ing.

The Chinese government have tried - with little success, and big knock-on
effects.

Its been very successful, too successful, now they are facing and aging
population and a lack of workers.


The real answer has to be working for longer, better spreading of
available resources or a drop in the expected standard of living.

Of course. But people really don't want to do that.

Those of us that have paid into real pension funds rather than just
paying for the current retired folk don't have to. Not that it means we
can't work if we want to.


The main other option has been explored in fiction from Trollope's "Fixed
Period" through to "Logan's Run" and beyond.


Thats what the experiments with flu, TB and SARS is about in'it.


Not to forget the Polio and cancer vaccine.

'Doctor Mary's Monkey'. Now there's a story to open the mind.


....Ray.

--
One click voting to change the world.
..https://secure.avaaz.org/en/index.php
Join Now! Be a part of people power.

Phase Conjugate Waves
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3wwdmwv0zk

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http://www.delusionalinsects.com/sty...-32/index.html

Startpage - The PRIVATE Search Engine!

Population growth
 

"[email protected]" wrote in message
web.com...
On 29/10/2015 22:14, Tim Streater wrote:
In article , Adrian
wrote:

On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 19:09:22 +0000, [email protected] wrote:

The real answer has to be working for longer, better spreading of
available resources or a drop in the expected standard of living.

Of course. But people really don't want to do that.

Those of us that have paid into real pension funds rather than just
paying for the current retired folk don't have to.

OK, here's a thought for you...

You've paid into a "real pension fund", by which I presume you mean
some kind of defined-benefit scheme, maybe even final-salary.
Congratulations.

That is not a real pension scheme. That's a scam. All such should be
banned.

Now, what do you think the money you've paid into that "real pension
fund" does...? Does it get put into a big piggybank with your name on
it, and somehow miraculously grow?

Or does it get invested...?

What happens if those investments don't go according to plan, and a
shortfall accrues - and grows? Even if they work out, how do those
investments pay back?

There is no such thing as an investment for the future - of ANY kind -
which doesn't rely on the future economy, and no such thing as a
pension of any kind where payments in don't "pay for the current
retired folk". It's all a matter of juggling investments.

The _only_ difference is whether you've been told way in advance what
pension you expect to get - and that's where things can go very wrong.

Companies should not be providing schemes for their own workers; it's
hardly their core business after all. The only sustainable type of
pension scheme is a personal one. You pay into a pot, and that pot is
invested for you. When you come to retire, the pot has a value that
relates to the economic situation at the time. If that is dire, then
your pension isn't worth much. But it'll be up to you what you do and
how/when you cash it in.

I don't know whether the state pension is properly funded in this way
or not, but I suspect it's just another Ponzi scheme, like the defined
benefit/final salary ones. Certainly this triple lock business is a bad
idea.


What makes you think a final salary pension isn't funded in the same way
as a personal pension?

I know it isn't when the govt is the employer.

Population growth
 

Norman Wells wrote
Rod Speed wrote
Norman Wells wrote
Rod Speed wrote

Is there never to be a cap on the world's population?

Its starting to look like it will fix itself eventually.
Birth rates are dropping world wide now except
in places where its now so low that that place is
right down in the noise.

How come the world's population is increasing by 50% every 40 years or
so?

Basically because its coming off a rather higher birth rate in the past.

And in future it will come from a rather high birth rate in the future.

That is unlikely given that birth rates are dropping everywhere now
except when the birth rate is down so low that its right in the noise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...fertility_rate

How come it will increase from the present 7 billion to 10 billion by
2050?

Basically because its coming off a rather higher birth rate in the past.

No, that's nonsense.

We'll see...

It can only come from a rather high birth rate from now until 2050.

That's not correct. That increase is due to the rather higher birth
rate in the past that produced more who can have children.

The truth is, it's out of control

Not anymore. Even the most populous country imposed quite
a bit of control and did that so effectively that they have had
to relax that control because of the downsides of that control.

Even in the times of that restriction, world population was increasing by
50% every 40 uears or so.

That comment was about China, not the world. The
birth rate in China is nothing even remotely like out
of control, too much in control in many ways.

Relaxation of that restriction in the most populous nation on earth can
only make the global situation worse.

Sure, but the birth rate in China is clearly not out of control.

and exponentially rising.

In fact not one modern first world country is even self
replacing now on population if you take out immigration
and that is true of quite a bit of the second world too.

World population, and hence the number of mouths to feed, doesn't depend
on the first world, which is pretty insignificant.

Yes, but when the most populous country, China,
has in fact a hell of a lot of control, that line
about exponentially rising is just rhetoric as
is your previous claim that its out of control.

It clearly isn't in the modern first world, or much
of the second world, and in the most populous
country, China. And in ALL the rest the birth rate
is dropping except where its now so low that its
right down in the noise.

The massive increase in popluation is coming from the third world.

Depends on whether you are claiming that India and China
are third world countrys. Most wouldn’t agree with that.

And it will continue.

But at a lower birth rate than we have seen in the recent past.

Birth rates are dropping world wide now except in places where its now so
low that that place is right down in the noise.

World population is still increasing by 50% every 40 years or so.

Still a better result than if the birth rates
had not started to drop EVERYWHERE.

That can't continue for ever,

And it wont if birth rates continue to drop EVERYWHERE,
except where its so low that its right down in the noise now.

and I think you're deluding yourself if you think it won't.

Having fun thrashing that straw man ?

That has happened throughout history in all animal populations in times
ofplenty. Then they outstrip their food supply, there is widespread
famine, and thepopulation rather unpleasantly and extremely rapidly
declines.

Human populations work completely differently.

Human populations don’t work like that.

What evidence, if any, do you have for that?

Just gave it to you below.

You see, all the actual evidence ofpopulation increase worldwide indicates
otherwise.

That is a lie.

Sorry, but humans will be no different.

They already are. Not one modern first world country is even
self replacing now on population if you take out immigration.

Those are by definition the countrys with much more plenty
than anywhere else and we don’t in fact see them do anything
like outstrip their food supply, or see anything even remotely
like widespread famine in the modern first world, and nothing
even remotely like the population rather unpleasantly and
extremely rapidly declines in the modern first world.

And we no longer even get famine due to population numbers
anywhere in the world anymore. We only see famine where the
place has deteriorated into the most obscene levels of civil war and
civil chaos and its no longer possible to feed them properly from
outside the area which is experiencing famine due to drought etc.

Since we're considering world population, what may be happening in the
first world is vastly outweighed by what's happening in the third world.

Still blows a damned great hole in that claim of yours that
times of plenty produces big increases in population with
the inevitable result of famine and collapse of population.

Human populations just don’t work like that anymore
and its very arguable indeed that they ever did.

World population *overall* is expanding exponentially, and there is no
evidence whatsoever that it won't continue to do so in future.

Irrelevant to your claim about what times of plenty produce.

Not with humans it doesn’t anymore.

If it does, we will run out of food.

How odd that we don’t see famine anymore except when
the place has imploded in the most obscene levels of civil
war and civil chaos, even with the population increasing
exponentially.

It's absolutely inevitable.

See above.

Human populations are in fact VERY different to animal populations.

No they aren't. They're actually very much the same.

Must explain why the undeniable times of plenty in the
modern first world hasn’t produced anything like what you
claim is inevitable with famine or population collapse either.

And it's a problem that has no current appreciation nor any feasible
solution.

Bull****. China has implemented a perfectly
viable solution which has some real downsides.

And its far from clear that we actually need a solution
if birth rates continue to drop EVERYWHERE. That
indicates that the problem may well fix itself.

There is no appreciation of the problem,

There is no appreciation by you and your ilk how things are changing.

Stop hiding your head in the sand

You're the one doing that. Just like Malthus did.

and tell us why the population is still expected to increase to 10 billion
from the present 7 billion by 2050.

I already told you, the previously higher birth rates.

That can only be because of an enormously excessive birth rate overall.

Which keeps dropping EVERYWHERE as we speak.

no-one who can comprehend its magnitude, and no-one in a position, or
would be allowed, to do anything about it.

How odd that China did in fact realise that they had a problem,
and did something very real about it, so effectively that they
have had to relax that doing something about it because of the
downsides they have got with that rather gung ho approach.

And even now they are STILL not self replacing even if every
couple does have two kids. And that clearly isn't going to happen

Are you advocating worldwide legal penalties for having 'excess' children
then?

Nope, because with birth rates continuing to drop EVERYWHERE,
its starting to look like the problem will fix itself eventually.

If so, how would you propose to establish and enforce the rules worldwide?

Having fun thrashing that straw man ?

If not, how do we break out of the exponential growth that is happening
and will continue to happen?

That is already happening without us doing anything specific,
with birth rates dropping EVERYWHERE except where they
are now so low that they are right down in the noise.