OTA DTV hits ONE%
 

State of the OTA DTV transition

25% of households in US have a TV that will display HD.
75% of those think they are watching HD
53% of that 25% are actually watching HD via sat or cable
4% of that 24% are watching HD via OTA
This article says that leaves 20% of HDTV owners erroneously thinking
they are watching HD when they are not. My math says 43% are in that
deluded category.

Only 41% were told in the store how to get HD.

And only ONE % of US households get HD via OTA after almost 10 years.
Math is 4% of 25% of households is equal to 1% of 100% of households.

The US OTA DTV transition is a total grotesque failure.

Will the ONE% hold after the end of analog? Maybe. It probably will go
lower as cable and satellite compete for the last analog OTA holdouts in
the final days of analog broadcasting.

In less than a year after analog turnoff Congress will begin holding
hearings on the best way to eliminate free OTA broadcasting and
subsidize those crazy ONE% that still depend on OTA DTV.

http://www.advanced-television.com/2...2_nov16.htm#t5

"25% HD in US

New consumer research from Leichtman Research found that about
one-quarter of households in the United States have at least one
television set capable of receiving high definition programming–
essentially double the penetration of HDTV of two years ago. Yet,
consumer confusion related to high definition programming and products
remains strong.

LRG’s latest HDTV research found that:
While over three-quarters of HDTV owners believe that they are watching
HD programming, LRG estimates that about 53% of all HD households are
actually watching HD programming from a multi-channel video provider
(cable, DBS or a telco), and about 4% are watching HD programming via
broadcast-only - leaving about 20% of those with an HDTV erroneously
thinking that they are watching HD programming when they are not.

Just 41% of HDTV owners say that they were told how to receive HD
programming when they purchased their set.

About 40% of HDTV owners, and over 20% of all adults, believe that their
household currently has a high definition DVD player - a figure that, if
accurate, would represent a much greater total than the number of high
definition DVD players actually sold to date.

These findings are based on a survey of 1,300 households throughout the
United States, and are part of a new LRG study, HDTV 2007: Consumer
Awareness, Interest and Ownership."

In the meantime the UK will hit 75% of homes with OTA DTV receivers at
the end of the year and a very high percentage of those homes will have
multiple OTA DTV receivers. And though the UK does not broadcast OTA HD
it is available on cable and satellite and they are planning on OTA HD
in the future.

In the US the future is OTA KIA while HD will be available for a price
on cable and satellite.

Free OTA DTV in the US is dead.

BTW the analog turnoff is a lie. Of about 9000 OTA analog TV stations on
the air today only 1700 will be turned off in 2009 by law. The rest will
go on broadcasting in analog for some as yet unknown period of time.

Bob Miller

OTA DTV hits ONE%
 

Bob Miller wrote:


Bob Miller

I snipped the entire post by Bob
because it is all bull****.

Chip

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OTA DTV hits ONE%
 

OTA DTV hits ONE%
 

On Mon, 12 Nov 2007 14:22:02 -0500 Bob Miller wrote:
| State of the OTA DTV transition
|
| 25% of households in US have a TV that will display HD.
| 75% of those think they are watching HD
| 53% of that 25% are actually watching HD via sat or cable
| 4% of that 24% are watching HD via OTA
| This article says that leaves 20% of HDTV owners erroneously thinking
| they are watching HD when they are not. My math says 43% are in that
| deluded category.
|
| Only 41% were told in the store how to get HD.
|
| And only ONE % of US households get HD via OTA after almost 10 years.
| Math is 4% of 25% of households is equal to 1% of 100% of households.
|
| The US OTA DTV transition is a total grotesque failure.

This situation exists only because there was a mass migration (in SD)
to cable and satellite. The reason is for the large number of channels
available. The failure of the OTA system is the lack of channels, not
because it is going digital or HD.

OTA HD will actually reverse this trend somewhat, as people find they
can get better quality pictures from OTA than from cable or satellite.

But, broadcasters may choose to drop HD and do 4 to 6 SD channels in
their 6 MHz. In which case, the number of channels increases and a
few people will come back to OTA for that (if the programming is any
good, which is doubtful).


| Will the ONE% hold after the end of analog? Maybe. It probably will go
| lower as cable and satellite compete for the last analog OTA holdouts in
| the final days of analog broadcasting.

That ONE% that gets HD are not the ones that need to switch to cable to
get a picture. That's the other few percent that will be of concern.


| In less than a year after analog turnoff Congress will begin holding
| hearings on the best way to eliminate free OTA broadcasting and
| subsidize those crazy ONE% that still depend on OTA DTV.

It will be TWO% by then ... or more.


| Free OTA DTV in the US is dead.

Not yet.


| BTW the analog turnoff is a lie. Of about 9000 OTA analog TV stations on
| the air today only 1700 will be turned off in 2009 by law. The rest will
| go on broadcasting in analog for some as yet unknown period of time.

There is no lie. It is full-power stations that turn off. It has not yet
been decided with the rest tunr off. But they will, eventually. Some
have suggested it could be within a year (e.g. Feb 18, 2010).

--
|---------------------------------------/----------------------------------|
| Phil Howard KA9WGN (ka9wgn.ham.org) / Do not send to the address below |
| first name lower case at ipal.net / |
|------------------------------------/-------------------------------------|

OTA DTV hits ONE%
 

I have a feeling this is another Y2K crisis in the making - lots of panic
over something that's going to be largely a non-event. Americans tend to
behave like ADD cases. They ignore looming deadlines until the last moment,
and then they become amazingly resourceful. Sometime around christmas 2008,
they'll start to notice, and then by February, things will be sorted out. I
get a chuckle out of the stats about people who think they're watching HD
when in fact they're not. I've heard even higher numbers than the ones cited
in this report, but I'm skeptical. I think it appeals to a desire in all of
us to say "Look at all those rubes who have no clue about modern technology.
I'm glad I'm so much smarter than they are."

OTA DTV hits ONE%
 

On Mon, 12 Nov 2007 19:17:36 -0500 Nick Danger wrote:

| I have a feeling this is another Y2K crisis in the making - lots of panic
| over something that's going to be largely a non-event. Americans tend to
| behave like ADD cases. They ignore looming deadlines until the last moment,
| and then they become amazingly resourceful. Sometime around christmas 2008,
| they'll start to notice, and then by February, things will be sorted out. I
| get a chuckle out of the stats about people who think they're watching HD
| when in fact they're not. I've heard even higher numbers than the ones cited
| in this report, but I'm skeptical. I think it appeals to a desire in all of
| us to say "Look at all those rubes who have no clue about modern technology.
| I'm glad I'm so much smarter than they are."

In this case, it is more like Americans are not being informed. Look at
the TV broadcasters themselves and how they are reporting this. I am aware
of exactly one broadcaster that has even made any attempt to inform their
viewers (WISH-TV over a year ago). Maybe many others have, as I don't see
them all.

--
|---------------------------------------/----------------------------------|
| Phil Howard KA9WGN (ka9wgn.ham.org) / Do not send to the address below |
| first name lower case at ipal.net / |
|------------------------------------/-------------------------------------|

OTA DTV hits ONE%
 

Nick Danger wrote:
I have a feeling this is another Y2K crisis in the making - lots of
panic over something that's going to be largely a non-event. Americans
tend to behave like ADD cases. They ignore looming deadlines until the
last moment, and then they become amazingly resourceful. Sometime around
christmas 2008, they'll start to notice, and then by February, things
will be sorted out. I get a chuckle out of the stats about people who
think they're watching HD when in fact they're not. I've heard even
higher numbers than the ones cited in this report, but I'm skeptical. I
think it appeals to a desire in all of us to say "Look at all those
rubes who have no clue about modern technology. I'm glad I'm so much
smarter than they are."


In a sense I agree. OTA broadcasters, cable and satellite operators,
Congress and the FCC are all holding their breath and hoping that they
will get through analog turnoff without any political damage.

Broadcasters would love it if their OTA has ONE% viewership and the
other 99% pays for their free OTA content on cable, FIOS or satellite.
Cable and satellite seeing what is happening to cable and satellite in
other countries where OTA is seeing a massive rebirth with digital and
threatening cable and satellite business models, read profits, will
breath a sigh of relief if they can quietly in conspiracy with
broadcasters diffuse the threat of digital OTA or even kill it.

Bob Miller

OTA DTV hits ONE%
 

OTA DTV hits ONE%
 

On Mon, 12 Nov 2007 22:53:19 -0500 Bob Miller wrote:

| In a sense I agree. OTA broadcasters, cable and satellite operators,
| Congress and the FCC are all holding their breath and hoping that they
| will get through analog turnoff without any political damage.

At least it is _after_ the 2008 election. Maybe they are hoping that by
2012 everyone will have got to cable or satellite and forgotten about
the snow on their TVs on Feb 18, 2009.

Or maybe people will re-discover OTA.


| Broadcasters would love it if their OTA has ONE% viewership and the
| other 99% pays for their free OTA content on cable, FIOS or satellite.
| Cable and satellite seeing what is happening to cable and satellite in
| other countries where OTA is seeing a massive rebirth with digital and
| threatening cable and satellite business models, read profits, will
| breath a sigh of relief if they can quietly in conspiracy with
| broadcasters diffuse the threat of digital OTA or even kill it.

If we just pull the rug and kill OTA completely, what happens to the
broadcasters? What happens to their must-carry ace card? I'm sure
the spectrum would get auctioned off.

--
|---------------------------------------/----------------------------------|
| Phil Howard KA9WGN (ka9wgn.ham.org) / Do not send to the address below |
| first name lower case at ipal.net / |
|------------------------------------/-------------------------------------|

OTA DTV hits ONE%
 

"Brian Kraft" wrote in message
reenews.net...
Nick Danger wrote:

...by February, things will be sorted out

My mostly rural county is so conservative, within a week of analog
shutoff I expect grassroots protests to spring up, such as farmers
parking their tractors on the well manicured lawn of City Hall.

How many millions of dollars will they have contributed to the new
president's campaign? Do you think anyone in government will care about
them?

I would guess that cable and satellite will offer "First six months free"
plans and that will placate a lot of people - especially since they'll now
be getting many more channels than they were getting OTA. They must already
be sitting on a lot of returned boxes with analog outputs that people have
been returning as they've gone to HDTV, so they won't even have to
manufacture new ones. The satellite companies will still have to install
dishes, but somehow they are able to do that now without recouping the cost.
After these six-month-free plans expire, the people will have been
sufficiently sedated and conditioned that they will willingly pay their
monthly fees. At worst, we may see a version of the subprime mortgage
meltdown, but in this case it will be only converter boxes that get
repossessed, not houses.