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Comcast announces partnership with Tivo !
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On Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:16:56 GMT, "Martha Stewart's cellmate"
wrote: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...ivo_comcast_18 Wow! I did not know that. Thanks!!! Sean |
Sean none writes:
On Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:16:56 GMT, "Martha Stewart's cellmate" wrote: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...ivo_comcast_18 Wow! I did not know that. Thanks!!! Sean This may have been the most clever post from Sean ever. Here is what I don't understand. Tivo's stock shot up 75% today, giving them a market cap of $540 million. But the actual NUMBERS from the Comcast deal are still secret. There is zero public information about how much revenue this deal will actually represent for Tivo. Maybe it's $1 per subscriber per month; maybe it's 20 cents per year. We don't know. So how do you justify a quarter billion dollar jump in valuation? We know from earlier reports that a Comcast deal fell through last summer, partly because Comcast did not offer Tivo enough money. Since it would have been insane THEN to turn down any Comcast offer short of total robbery, I really must wonder what the terms of this new deal are. Don't get me wrong. As someone who bought TIVO at $17 (bubble mania; go figure) and has held it ever since, I am glad to see a little action here. I will probably continue to hold the stock because I have an irrational liking for the company... But my rational side has this nagging suspicion that I am making the wrong call. - Pat |
But the actual NUMBERS from the Comcast deal are still secret. There
is zero public information about how much revenue this deal will actually represent for Tivo. Maybe it's $1 per subscriber per month; maybe it's 20 cents per year. We don't know. So how do you justify a quarter billion dollar jump in valuation? You probably can't. Markets don't work rationally in the short term (and perhaps not even in the long term), there's a lot of emotion involved. I'd say there's two factors contributing here. One, Tivo is a *loved* company with loyal followers not based on financials. Fans often see owning stock as one method of supporting a company they like (which isn't necessarily wrong). Any sign of good news, particularly after a long period of bad or no news will likely cause many of those fans to purchase stock, regardless of valuation. Two, after such a long period of bad or no news, Tivo's stock was probably depressed below what it really should have been. They have a quality product (which has been proven difficult to duplicate reliably), a very loyal customer base, and very active and forward thinking development. Despite all that, it was difficult to justify the stock as a buy because there was nothing to show for a relatively long time except bad news (at least financially, TTG was something good to talk about at least). Now that there's something else to focus on, nobody has to make excuses. Also, remember that the stock market typically buys on the rumor and sells on the news. Since there wasn't even a *rumor* about this (AFAIK), the market reacted swiftly. Later on, even if the financials look as good as expected, the price will probably still drop some because the emotion will be gone. Randy S. |
In article [email protected],
Lenroc wrote: On Tue, 15 Mar 2005 17:45:26 -0500, Patrick J. LoPresti wrote: But the actual NUMBERS from the Comcast deal are still secret. There is zero public information about how much revenue this deal will actually represent for Tivo. Maybe it's $1 per subscriber per month; maybe it's 20 cents per year. We don't know. So how do you justify a quarter billion dollar jump in valuation? Because Stock investors are not necessarily economists? How do you justify _anything_ the stock market does? Wall Street often over reacts to things. |
"Sean" none wrote in message ... On Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:16:56 GMT, "Martha Stewart's cellmate" wrote: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...ivo_comcast_18 Wow! I did not know that. Thanks!!! Sean So does this change your prediction of the demise of Tivo? As I recall you indicated in previous post "I'm on record as saying that Tivo will no longer exist in it's current form 6 months from the time Directv starts marketing their own DVR's." Given that Comcast has about 21.5M Basic Cable subscribers and about 8.6M Digital Cable subscribers compared to DTV's 11M I'd say that Tivo is going to get a pretty large market share if this deal actually goes through. Just curious TC |
So does this change your prediction of the demise of Tivo? As I recall you indicated in previous post "I'm on record as saying that Tivo will no longer exist in it's current form 6 months from the time Directv starts marketing their own DVR's." Given that Comcast has about 21.5M Basic Cable subscribers and about 8.6M Digital Cable subscribers compared to DTV's 11M I'd say that Tivo is going to get a pretty large market share if this deal actually goes through. He'll just ignore this post as usual. He doesn't anwer posts where he can't pretend he was right in the first place. Randy S. |
In article .net,
"Tony Clark" wrote: "Sean" none wrote in message ... On Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:16:56 GMT, "Martha Stewart's cellmate" wrote: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...te/tivo_comcas t_18 Wow! I did not know that. Thanks!!! Sean So does this change your prediction of the demise of Tivo? As I recall you indicated in previous post "I'm on record as saying that Tivo will no longer exist in it's current form 6 months from the time Directv starts marketing their own DVR's." Given that Comcast has about 21.5M Basic Cable subscribers and about 8.6M Digital Cable subscribers compared to DTV's 11M I'd say that Tivo is going to get a pretty large market share if this deal actually goes through. Just curious TC DirecTv is above 13 million by now. |
"Jack Zwick" wrote in message ... In article .net, SNIP DirecTv is above 13 million by now. In a check of the DTV annual report, 3-1-05, they claim 13.9M US and 1.6M Latin America. Still only about half that of Comcast. I guess reports of Tivo's demise were premature. TC |
On Wed, 16 Mar 2005 07:08:57 -0500, "Randy S."
wrote: So does this change your prediction of the demise of Tivo? As I recall you indicated in previous post "I'm on record as saying that Tivo will no longer exist in it's current form 6 months from the time Directv starts marketing their own DVR's." Given that Comcast has about 21.5M Basic Cable subscribers and about 8.6M Digital Cable subscribers compared to DTV's 11M I'd say that Tivo is going to get a pretty large market share if this deal actually goes through. He'll just ignore this post as usual. He doesn't anwer posts where he can't pretend he was right in the first place. Randy S. Oh, I ignored it all right. Except for my post yesterday Titled Sean Was proven right. Geeze what dolts you are. As I said in the initial post months ago about Mike Ramsay ... Maybe he can now devote all his time to begging cable companies to return his phone calls. That's the only hope for this company, otherwise it's ... TIVO - Dead Company Walking So, what happens. Ramsay does what I said he should. He begged the cable co's to come back to the table. It remains to be seen if all this is is a replacement of 1 bad deal (directv) with another. Sean |
On Wed, 16 Mar 2005, Tony Clark wrote:
So does this change your prediction of the demise of Tivo? As I recall you No, it won't. He'll say that the deal will never close. When the deal closes he'll say it's too little too late. When TiVo is turning a healthy profit, he'll come up with some other reason why the company is doomed. I can just picture what went down with Sean when this was announced... Get out of bed (careful not to wake mom up) Eat bowl of Fruity Pebbles (seems appropriate) Is it March? Shower. Call in daily bomb threat to TiVo HQ (they know it's you...) Call Cable company and tell them how great their service is Check if cable DVR recorded 'Sesame Street' yesterday...dang. Open paycheck from ReplayTV for being a good troll in a.v.p.t Read newspaper - OH NO! Run upstairs to computer Begin wildly posting to a.v.p.t Re-post personal ad in alt.sex.sheep Post some more drivel in a.v.p.t Scan usenet archives for any posts that could possibly help you Re-post irrelevant messages from years ago and convince yourself that they backup your argument Get completely ridiculed... But ultimately, he is right. When the sun runs out of hydrogen in 5 billion years, TiVo will cease to exist. But CONcast will still be around. They love their customers so much, they'll use their vast wealth to build a new solar system and move their subs to it. That way they can continue to anally rape us with our monthly cable bills. Seany, please don't leave the group - my killfile will starve! |
On Wed, 16 Mar 2005 11:37:05 -0600, Adam Maloney
wrote: On Wed, 16 Mar 2005, Tony Clark wrote: So does this change your prediction of the demise of Tivo? As I recall you No, it won't. He'll say that the deal will never close. When the deal closes he'll say it's too little too late. When TiVo is turning a healthy profit, he'll come up with some other reason why the company is doomed. I can just picture what went down with Sean when this was announced... Get out of bed (careful not to wake mom up) Eat bowl of Fruity Pebbles (seems appropriate) Is it March? Shower. Call in daily bomb threat to TiVo HQ (they know it's you...) Call Cable company and tell them how great their service is Check if cable DVR recorded 'Sesame Street' yesterday...dang. Open paycheck from ReplayTV for being a good troll in a.v.p.t Read newspaper - OH NO! Run upstairs to computer Begin wildly posting to a.v.p.t Re-post personal ad in alt.sex.sheep Post some more drivel in a.v.p.t Scan usenet archives for any posts that could possibly help you Re-post irrelevant messages from years ago and convince yourself that they backup your argument Get completely ridiculed... But ultimately, he is right. When the sun runs out of hydrogen in 5 billion years, TiVo will cease to exist. But CONcast will still be around. They love their customers so much, they'll use their vast wealth to build a new solar system and move their subs to it. That way they can continue to anally rape us with our monthly cable bills. Seany, please don't leave the group - my killfile will starve! You dolts are more dense than I thought. I bitched for months in this NG about Tivo not having a HD Cable product. All you geniuses told me to shut up and stop being a troll while you had your noses firmly placed up Mike Ramseys ass. After bitching about Tivo not offering a Cable HD product I then made the prediction that without one, Tivo was a dead company walking. Again, all you Tivo Rumpswabs told me I was just a troll and Tivo didn't need a Cable HD product, which then morphed into "Tivo will have a cable hd product next jan with cablecard". I still insisted that Tivo was destined to be crushed by the likes of Comcast. So, what happens? Someone replaces Mike ramsays brain with a much smarter one (has anyone seen Michaal Jacksons chimp lately) and Tivo finally does a deal with Comcast. Give me a minute while I pat myself on the back for being 100% right all along. OK, I'm back. The only thing left to determine was how much groveling did Ramsay have to do to save his company? We won't know that until the finances are announced. By whaty twisted Tivo Rumpswab logic does that make me wrong about anything? Sean |
He'll just ignore this post as usual. He doesn't anwer posts where he can't pretend he was right in the first place. Randy S. Oh, I ignored it all right. Except for my post yesterday Titled Sean Was proven right. Geeze what dolts you are. As I said in the initial post months ago about Mike Ramsay ... Maybe he can now devote all his time to begging cable companies to return his phone calls. That's the only hope for this company, otherwise it's ... TIVO - Dead Company Walking So, what happens. Ramsay does what I said he should. He begged the cable co's to come back to the table. It remains to be seen if all this is is a replacement of 1 bad deal (directv) with another. Sean See? He completely ignored the relevent portion of where he was completely wrong. The more he refuses to acknowledge reality, the funnier it is! ;-) Randy S. |
After bitching about Tivo not offering a Cable HD product I then made
the prediction that without one, Tivo was a dead company walking. Sean, please produce one verifiable post where you said this. You never made any exception along the lines of "unless they get a Cable product". Until you can produce this your protestions of "I was 100% correct" is complete bull****. Randy S. |
On Wed, 16 Mar 2005 13:53:52 -0500, "Randy S."
wrote: After bitching about Tivo not offering a Cable HD product I then made the prediction that without one, Tivo was a dead company walking. Sean, please produce one verifiable post where you said this. You never made any exception along the lines of "unless they get a Cable product". Until you can produce this your protestions of "I was 100% correct" is complete bull****. Randy S. Read it and weep, dumb****. I'll wait for your apology. http://groups-beta.google.com/group/...4?dmode=source Sean |
On Wed, 16 Mar 2005 13:32:43 -0500, "Randy S."
wrote: He'll just ignore this post as usual. He doesn't anwer posts where he can't pretend he was right in the first place. Randy S. Oh, I ignored it all right. Except for my post yesterday Titled Sean Was proven right. Geeze what dolts you are. As I said in the initial post months ago about Mike Ramsay ... Maybe he can now devote all his time to begging cable companies to return his phone calls. That's the only hope for this company, otherwise it's ... TIVO - Dead Company Walking So, what happens. Ramsay does what I said he should. He begged the cable co's to come back to the table. It remains to be seen if all this is is a replacement of 1 bad deal (directv) with another. Sean See? He completely ignored the relevent portion of where he was completely wrong. The more he refuses to acknowledge reality, the funnier it is! ;-) Randy S. Apparently what I ignored was so "relevant" that you snipped it out of your post. I'm beginning to think that you are doing this on purpose. Noone is that dumb. Sean |
* Sean Wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
Apparently what I ignored was so "relevant" that you snipped it out of your post. I'm beginning to think that you are doing this on purpose. Noone is that dumb. Apparently you are. If you wanted to answer it, you know where to find the post. -- David |
"Randy S." writes:
But the actual NUMBERS from the Comcast deal are still secret. There is zero public information about how much revenue this deal will actually represent for Tivo. Maybe it's $1 per subscriber per month; maybe it's 20 cents per year. We don't know. So how do you justify a quarter billion dollar jump in valuation? You probably can't. Markets don't work rationally in the short term (and perhaps not even in the long term), there's a lot of emotion involved. My question was partly rhetorical :-). Although I was kind of wondering if anybody would correct me about the numbers being secret. I'd say there's two factors contributing here. One, Tivo is a *loved* company with loyal followers not based on financials. Fans often see owning stock as one method of supporting a company they like (which isn't necessarily wrong). Any sign of good news, particularly after a long period of bad or no news will likely cause many of those fans to purchase stock, regardless of valuation. Two, after such a long period of bad or no news, Tivo's stock was probably depressed below what it really should have been. Well, the above logic suggests those same fans (e.g., myself) were also holding their Tivo stock irrationally long, artifically INFLATING the price. I hate to say it, but prior to this deal, Sean kind of had a point. Tivo really needed this. Now the company will almost surely survive, although what their revenues will be is anybody's guess. Buying or even holding the stock now is sheer speculation. Not that I'm planning to sell. Who knows? Maybe this deal will strengthen the (already strong) Tivo brand to the point that other suitors will come knocking. Also, remember that the stock market typically buys on the rumor and sells on the news. Yeah, people are pretty stupid. - Pat |
My question was partly rhetorical :-). Although I was kind of wondering if anybody would correct me about the numbers being secret. Sorry, tone is often hard to express in a news post. But everything I've read says that the numbers of the deal are undisclosed, meaning anything concerning expected revenue/profits is blatant and unsubstantiated speculation. I'd say there's two factors contributing here. One, Tivo is a *loved* company with loyal followers not based on financials. Fans often see owning stock as one method of supporting a company they like (which isn't necessarily wrong). Any sign of good news, particularly after a long period of bad or no news will likely cause many of those fans to purchase stock, regardless of valuation. Two, after such a long period of bad or no news, Tivo's stock was probably depressed below what it really should have been. Well, the above logic suggests those same fans (e.g., myself) were also holding their Tivo stock irrationally long, artifically INFLATING the price. I'd say there was some of that too. It's all just pure speculation on my part. But it may be that there are now many *more* Tivo fans then there were, so a much larger audience was just inspired to buy stock. I hate to say it, but prior to this deal, Sean kind of had a point. Tivo really needed this. Now the company will almost surely survive, although what their revenues will be is anybody's guess. Buying or even holding the stock now is sheer speculation. First of all, "Sean" was far from the only person who thought Tivo would be really helped by having a Cable deal. I've said that many times, as have many others. Giving credit to Sean for that is undeserved. What differentiated Sean's view was that he said that without one Tivo could not survive. Most of us disagreed with that. But buying or holding Tivo stock now is strictly a gamble until the deal numbers come out, there's no arguing with that. What may be worth arguing is how *good* of a gamble it is ;-). Not that I'm planning to sell. Who knows? Maybe this deal will strengthen the (already strong) Tivo brand to the point that other suitors will come knocking. See, you think it's a good gamble! ;-). I hope it pays off. It did for Google IPO buyers! Also, remember that the stock market typically buys on the rumor and sells on the news. Yeah, people are pretty stupid. Well, stupidity is part of it, certainly. But part of investing is guessing (hopefully an educated guess!) what the market will do *before* other people make the same decision. In such an environment buying on rumors is naturally encouraged. That doesn't mean it's successful. Randy S. |
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