Old Bill's almanac
 

This is a series of extracts from a conversation on the net between me and one
of my mates in the TV distribution system business. It hasn't been carefully
researched -- it's just thinking aloud really. Pure speculation in fact, after
a few jars. I wondered if anyone had any comments.

We already give analogue secondary importance. For instance, if Channel Five
is transmitted on very low power on analogue we would not spend a lot of money
processing it separately so that it arrived at the outlets at the same power as
the other analogue channels. If anyone was unhappy with their C5 we would tell
them to get a DTT box. This bias towards DTT will strengthen as the years pass.
During the 405 to 625 changeover years we worried less and less about the 405
reception until a point was reached where, if the 405 aerial collapsed we would
simply remove it and tell any remaining 405 line viewers to get a new telly.
Often there would be one flat out of thirty using 405 lines.
------
I predict that two years from now analogue will start to seem absurdly
anachronistic. The will to spend money on maintaining analogue reception on
distribution systems simply won't be there. Landlords and property managers,
often stung by the cost of converting for digital, will say to the residents
"Look, we aren't going to spend £xxx on the system to maintain analogue when
all you need to do is spend £x on a DTT box." They're saying that now in fact.
And so the switch to digital will gather pace.
------
By 2010 all off-air reception will be digital. Whether or not the analogue
transmissions remain, they will be irrelevant to almost every installation.
There'll be a few DTT set-top boxes about, but of course all new TV sets and
DVD recorders will receive DTT directly. VCRs will have disappeared from the
shops almost completely, although there will still be quite a few in use,
Manufacturers will introduce DTT-only TV sets, and initially this will cause
problems because people will bring them home and then discover that they can't
tune-in their in-house analogue sources, such as Skybox outputs and
surveillance switcher outputs. The latter will commonly be added to the
channels on the distribution system, together will individual camera outputs.
TV sets of reasonable quality will have four RGB capable scart inputs, and
add-on analogue tuner units will be on sale for those needing to hook up old
equipment. Lots of old VCRs will find a new role sitting in standby and acting
as analogue tuners for DTT-only tellys. Incidentally, domestic surveillance
will be a massive industry and will still be geared to 625 line PAL. Commercial
surveillance will have moved over almost entirely to HDTV, with signal
distribution and recording in digital form. Mux generators will be the CCTV
buzzword.
--------
The plasmas sold in the early years of the century will all have been sent to
the landfill by their wealthy early-adoptor owners, and the replacements will
be capable of beautiful HDTV displays. Unfortunately these will only be
available from disc or foreign satellite transmissions, because bandwidth
restrictions will reduce UK HDTV transmissions to the same sad artifact-ridden
state as present day DTT.
------
The Sky 'Whole House' system will be gaining in popularity. Using a quad or
octo LNB as necessary all signals will pass through a 'masterbox', normally
situated under the stairs or in the loft. The box will output four or eight
channels simultaneously to slave boxes in different rooms. These signals will
be in digital form using a proprietary coding system owned by Sky. The slave
boxes will each function in a similar way to a Sky+ box with HDD recording
available either locally or from the master. The link between the master and
the slaves will be either by coax or radio or a mix of both. Playback from any
box will be available at all other boxes. The system will have return path
capability for internet use.
Contrary to the early expectations of the cable TV industry, cable will do no
more than tick over in the UK. Dishes will be so commonplace that to object to
their appearance will seem absurd. Unable to compete with Sky World plc and
with DTT filling in the gaps that Sky World leaves, and with the rushed,
botched builds of 1998-2003 starting to create massive maintenance costs, by
2010 cable will have begun the retreat that will leave it as a niche product,
the niche being densely populated city areas with requirements for obscure
ethnic channels.
DAB and FM will be level pegging in 2010. The BBC will have three national
muxes and DAB quality will be pretty much the same as FM. The end of national
FM broadcasting will be on the horizon, but there will be no question of FM
disappearing completely. FM will become the home for a host of local
broadcasting initiatives. There will be no AM RSLs.

Bill

Bill wrote:

DAB and FM will be level pegging in 2010.


Really? There's probably about 150 milllion FM receivers in the UK, and
there's currently about 600,000 DAB receivers. Say 1m by the end of
year, that's a compound annual growth rate of 172% over 5 years, i.e.

1m x 2.72 = 2.72m by Jan 06
2.72m x 2.72 = 7.4m by Jan 07
7.4m x 2.72 = 20.1m by Jan 08
20.1m x 2.72 = 54.7m by Jan 09
54.7m x 2.72 = 149m by Jan 2010

Or, sales of

1.7m in 2005
4.7m in 2006
12.7m in 2007!!
34.6m in 2008!!!!!
94.3m in 2009!!!!!!!!

Wow! Buy Dixons shares now!



The BBC will have three
national muxes


They only actually need 576kbps more capacity (about half a mux) to
provide good audio quality:

http://www.digitalradiotech.co.uk/da...vs_dmb.htm#4_5


and DAB quality will be pretty much the same as FM.


If they don't increase the bit rates, and they are against increasing
the bit rates, how will the audio quality improve? By magic?

Sorry Bill, but this is the technological equivalent of an urban myth.
The following factors affect audio quality on digital radio:

* MP2 encoders
* transcoding (decoding followed by re-encoding) cycles
* playout system

MP2 (MPEG Layer 2) is now 11 or 12 years old. It's used very widely:
DVB-S/C/T, DAB, DVD. Do you seriously think that audio coding R&D
departments at places like Philips have not tried to optimise it over
the last 11 or 12 years??

There's a rule of diminishing returns as a codec matures, and MP2 *is*
mature, it's bloody old. Big changes in audio quality for a given bit
rate require new audio codecs. AAC at 128kbps provides very good audio
quality. MP2 cannot.

Many DAB stations like BBC ones don't transcode.

Many DAB stations like BBC ones have linear hard disk playout systems.

What else is there to improve that will provide this magical improvement
in audio quality to get DrAB up to FM standards???


The end of national FM broadcasting will be on the horizon,


A show of hands at a conference full of radio people asking whether FM
will still be used for broadcast radio in 2020 showed that the vast
majority thought that it would be.

The main problem, and the main difference between radio and TV is the
sheer number of analogue radios out there. There's no cars fitted as
standard with DAB yet (one expensive Astra model is going to get it soon
IIRC). That is one hell of a lot of ****ed off people that won't be able
to receive radio in their car if switch-off is on the horizon in 2010.
Every micro/midi/mini system, AV receiver etc etc with an FM tuner in it
that's sold is extending the life of FM. Plus, the attraction of getting
a cheap Freeview box is much greater than the attraction of getting an
expensive DAB radio, that may well not provide a large percentage of
people with anything that they wouldn't already listen to.

I think the success of Freeview might, ironically, harm the take-up of
DAB in that only 84% of Freeview viewing is to channels other than the
"big 5". So, although people are happy with their Freeview box, they may
be sceptical about whether they need more radio stations. Then again,
DAB is mis-sold on the back of better audio quality as well as more
stations, so people might naively believe that it does provide something
better than what's on FM.


--
Steve - www.digitalradiotech.co.uk - Digital Radio News & Info

DAB sounds worse than FM, Freeview, digital satellite, cable and
broadband internet radio

"DAB sounds worse than FM" wrote in message
...

there's currently about 600,000 DAB receivers. Say 1m by the end of
year, that's a compound annual growth rate of 172% over 5 years, i.e.

1m x 2.72 = 2.72m by Jan 06
2.72m x 2.72 = 7.4m by Jan 07
7.4m x 2.72 = 20.1m by Jan 08
20.1m x 2.72 = 54.7m by Jan 09
54.7m x 2.72 = 149m by Jan 2010

Or, sales of

1.7m in 2005
4.7m in 2006
12.7m in 2007!!
34.6m in 2008!!!!!
94.3m in 2009!!!!!!!!

Wow! Buy Dixons shares now!


The selling thing about DAB is that in a year or two they are going to
expand DAB with more stations in another band which the current sets can't
get . So these 600000 people will be expected to buy again.

--
Regards,
David

Please reply to News Group.

David wrote:

The selling thing about DAB is that in a year or two they are going to
expand DAB with more stations in another band which the current sets
can't get . So these 600000 people will be expected to buy again.


But that could be a blessing in disguise, because then they can use a
different transmission standard to DAB so we can have good audio quality
AND loads of stations. See:

http://www.digitalradiotech.co.uk/da...b-h_vs_dmb.htm


--
Steve - www.digitalradiotech.co.uk - Digital Radio News & Info

DAB sounds worse than FM, Freeview, digital satellite, cable and
broadband internet radio

[snip]
On the same theme as the "costs lots to maintain analogue, and less to
switch you to DTT", some of the small US telcos (and by small this can mean
100 rural subscribers!), realise that if they upgrade their telephone
exchanges to new super-duper digital, they can spend $1000+ to still support
pulse dialing, or $25.00 to buy old Farmer Giles a new tone dialing phone!
These sorts of cost-analyses are very easy to miss ;-).

Paul DS.

"DAB sounds worse than FM" wrote in message
...
Bill wrote:

DAB and FM will be level pegging in 2010.


Really? There's probably about 150 milllion FM receivers in the UK,
and
there's currently about 600,000 DAB receivers. Say 1m by the end of
year, that's a compound annual growth rate of 172% over 5 years, i.e.

Steve - www.digitalradiotech.co.uk - Digital Radio News & Info

DAB sounds worse than FM, Freeview, digital satellite, cable and
broadband internet radio


I have noticed recently that the importers/sellers of DAB radios now
only describe the audio quality as "Digital radio quality" or "DAB radio
quality", they've stopped breaching the Trade Descriptions Act by trying
to say that it's better than FM. I don't have a DAB radio (although I'm
thinking of getting a DAB portable), I receive digital radio via Sky or
via Freeview, I've got my Sky digibox connected to an input on my big
(but rather old) Technics 80w/ch amp.
Regards Mike.



---
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Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
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Mike Cawood, HND BIT wrote:
"DAB sounds worse than FM" wrote in message
...
Bill wrote:

DAB and FM will be level pegging in 2010.


Really? There's probably about 150 milllion FM receivers in the UK,
and there's currently about 600,000 DAB receivers. Say 1m by the end
of year, that's a compound annual growth rate of 172% over 5 years,
i.e.

Steve - www.digitalradiotech.co.uk - Digital Radio News & Info

DAB sounds worse than FM, Freeview, digital satellite, cable and
broadband internet radio


I have noticed recently that the importers/sellers of DAB radios now
only describe the audio quality as "Digital radio quality" or "DAB
radio quality", they've stopped breaching the Trade Descriptions Act
by trying to say that it's better than FM.


No, they're still lying. Have a read of the bit I wrote titled DAB
Industry Lies on

http://www.digitalradiotech.co.uk/


I don't have a DAB radio
(although I'm thinking of getting a DAB portable), I receive digital
radio via Sky or via Freeview, I've got my Sky digibox connected to
an input on my big (but rather old) Technics 80w/ch amp.


Best way to go. And you're not alone:

http://www.digitalradiotech.co.uk/im...io_via_DTV.jpg

You might be interested in the first article on the page about the Pace
DSR210F digital satellite radio, i.e. a micro-system sized dedicated
digital radio for satellite.


--
Steve - www.digitalradiotech.co.uk - Digital Radio News & Info

DAB sounds worse than FM, Freeview, digital satellite, cable and
broadband internet radio

"DAB sounds worse than FM" wrote
Really? There's probably about 150 milllion FM receivers in the UK, and
there's currently about 600,000 DAB receivers. Say 1m by the end of
year, that's a compound annual growth rate of 172% over 5 years, i.e.

Do you mean 150 million FM receivers in regular use, or does that include
old radios in the garage/shed/under the bed that people hardly use ?

Perhaps Bill wasn't referring to the number of physical radios out there,
but the actual audience listening share between the two radio systems.

You show glimmers of optimism in your prediction

It was the drink talking.

Won't analogue tuning remain on TVs sold across Europe until DTT is
available across the whole of Europe? If so, isn't 2010 optimistic?

I was thinking about things that have happened in the past. Remember the
outbreak of VCRs without modulators a few years ago? Sold as "Channel Five
Compatible" ! My Nokia handsfree kit came without a mains unit, on the grounds
that Nokia owners would already have one. But the kit is compatible with any
make of phone! I think the manufacturers will find it worthwhile to bring out
tellys with no analogue tuner, etc, just for small markets like the UK. They'll
be advertised as "Pure Digital"!

Bill